'Hotter than normal' summer predicted for France
French weather forecaster Météo France has released its long range forecast for the summer, saying that the most likely scenario is a hotter than normal summer with drought in some areas, although it says it is too soon predict when or if heatwaves will strike.
After an unusually wet start to 2024 with widespread rain and flooding across many areas of France, summer is predicted to be a scorcher.
Météo France said that it expected temperatures during the months of June, July and August to be above seasonal norms - saying that there is a 50 percent probability of a hotter than normal summer, 30 percent probability of average temperatures and 20 percent chance of a cooler than average summer.
However it added that it cannot predict heatwaves more than eight days in advance, meaning that detailed forecasts for the Paris Olympics and Paralympics are not yet possible.
In southern France along the Mediterranean coastline the probability of a hotter than average summer rises to 70 percent, while the south-east of France will likely be drier than normal and is expected to see drought conditions.
Although overall temperatures are expected to be higher, Météo France said that it cannot exclude brief periods of cooler temperatures, along with possible heatwaves.
France has experienced some punishing heatwaves (canicules) in recent years, with temperatures of 45.9C - and 42.9C in Paris - recorded in 2019.
Due to heavy rainfall at the start of the year, 65 percent of France’s water tables are above normal levels, so widespread drought restrictions as seen in 2023 are less likely, although some areas in the south east are below normal levels of water and have seen little rain so far this year.
Drought conditions also increase the risk of wildfires, and homeowners in wildfire risk areas are being reminded of their legal obligations.
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After an unusually wet start to 2024 with widespread rain and flooding across many areas of France, summer is predicted to be a scorcher.
Météo France said that it expected temperatures during the months of June, July and August to be above seasonal norms - saying that there is a 50 percent probability of a hotter than normal summer, 30 percent probability of average temperatures and 20 percent chance of a cooler than average summer.
However it added that it cannot predict heatwaves more than eight days in advance, meaning that detailed forecasts for the Paris Olympics and Paralympics are not yet possible.
In southern France along the Mediterranean coastline the probability of a hotter than average summer rises to 70 percent, while the south-east of France will likely be drier than normal and is expected to see drought conditions.
Although overall temperatures are expected to be higher, Météo France said that it cannot exclude brief periods of cooler temperatures, along with possible heatwaves.
France has experienced some punishing heatwaves (canicules) in recent years, with temperatures of 45.9C - and 42.9C in Paris - recorded in 2019.
Due to heavy rainfall at the start of the year, 65 percent of France’s water tables are above normal levels, so widespread drought restrictions as seen in 2023 are less likely, although some areas in the south east are below normal levels of water and have seen little rain so far this year.
Drought conditions also increase the risk of wildfires, and homeowners in wildfire risk areas are being reminded of their legal obligations.
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